The Turkish Cypriot political establishment has always been nationalist. Perhaps
the word ‘always’ is too ahistorical, but it is certainly the case that, since
the establishment of the Republic of Turkey in 1923 and particularly since the
1930s, nationalists have dominated the political landscape, as opposed to
groups who were deemed to be too close to the British. By 1960 and the birth of
the Republic of Cyprus, Dr. Fazıl Küçük and later Rauf Denktash emerged as the
primary representatives of the Turkish Cypriots. There have always been
dissenters, but a marked decline in support among Turkish Cypriots for the
‘national cause’ is fairly recent. Opposition groups have made cameo
appearances as lesser coalition partners in government through the years, but
have never come close to governing alone.
A victory for the opposition in December would therefore be unprecedented and a
watershed event. It might also be the harbinger of a shift in power from the
presidency toward the parliament. There is a parliamentary system but the
president is popularly elected. In the case of Denktash, however, his charisma
and other extraordinary factors make him a dominant figure despite this. Since
this outcome would be tantamount to a mandate for negotiating the Annan plan,
the establishment in Ankara may not be too keen. Turkish elites tend to see the
Cyprus issue as one of strategic importance and many seem convinced that either
the Annan plan is inimical to Turkey’s geopolitical interests or - for those
more sanguine - that a solution is premature given Turkey’s own aspirations to
join the European Union (EU). Therefore, a change in government in the north
could prove problematic for relations with Turkey. Of course there are varying
views in Turkey on how to proceed with the Cyprus problem, but, at present, the
official view that any solution must be based on two sovereign entities
persists.
The parliamentary electoral system is based on proportional representation and
entails a 5% threshold. Generally speaking a party that secures 40% of the vote
may have a reasonable expectation of governing either alone or as the major
partner in a coalition. At least, historically this has been the case.
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North Cyprus
