How likely is a change in the ‘status quo’? Recent polls are entirely
contradictory. A poll conducted jointly by KADEM, a polling agency, and the Yenidüzen
newspaper – CTP’s daily – suggest that a large majority of those polled favour
parties of the opposition. CTP get the lion’s share with close to 30%, followed
by the BDH at 15% and the UBP in at a close third. Ali Erel’s fledgling party, Çözüm
ve AB Partisi or Solution and EU Party, seems to have secured enough
support to overcome the threshold. The poll suggests the likelihood of an
opposition victory. A separate poll published in the Volkan newspaper
inverts the equation. Here the UBP are the frontrunners by a mile, followed by
the DP. The opposition parties garner less than 30% combined.
Which poll is the more scientifically valid? Whereas the questions appear to be
problematic, KADEM’s polling is generally valid as its relatively accurate
predictions of previous elections attests. The polls that were produced at the
end of 2002 regarding the Annan plan suggested that a significant majority of
the populace favoured the Annan plan and many actually voted with their feet by
joining in mass demonstrations. However, one should note that opponents of the
Annan plan also made their voices heard in separate demonstrations. Mass
demonstrations of this size are unprecedented and clearly mark a schism in
Turkish Cypriot political society.
The causes of this sudden outpouring into the streets are numerous and
cumulative, but one cannot underestimate the degree to which the media has
helped articulate and mobilize a sense of frustration with the way the north is
governed and in the never-ending Cyprus problem. For instance, the editorial
board of the most widely read daily, the Kibris newspaper, has been an
open advocate of the Annan plan. Kibris newspaper, owned by the Nadir
family, has shifted from a more nationalist position in previous years. It is a
matter of speculation as to what motivates businessman Asil Nadir and his
relatives. Beyond Kibris is the Afrika newspaper which is
anti-establishment and populist. It takes a radical line, challenging Denktash
and Ankara, including the Turkish military. Afrika is second only to Kibris
in circulation. The Kibrisli newspaper is also of some significance in
that its editor, Doğan Harman, has shifted from a more nationalist line to one
overtly hostile to the ‘status quo.’ Denktash, the UBP-DP, the Turkish Embassy
and others have countered with pro-establishment media including the Volkan
newspaper. Halkın Sesi, Küçük’s paper, has traditionally been
nationalistic and continues with that line, at the forefront of those critical
of the Annan plan. Other papers in the north are generally political party
publications and less widely read. It is significant, for instance, that the Afrika
newspaper is much more favorably disposed toward Akıncı’s movement than the
CTP.
Of course, media wars are not restricted to north Cyprus. In all the Turkish
dailies, the Annan plan got plenty of coverage and for a time was the issue
that animated debate among editorial columnists. As in Cyprus, there emerged a
schism between pro-EU and ‘status quo’ forces. The more liberal writers, like
Mehmet Ali Birand, brought the debate into the homes of millions of Turks.
Overall the impact on Turkish public opinion was mixed. Some Turks agreed with
Birand that something was amiss in north Cyprus. Most Turks, though, found
pro-Annan forces in Cyprus and the likes of Birand to be ingrates and too
willing to cash in with the EU. Nationalism runs deep in the Turkish psyche and
Cyprus is an emotive issue. Moreover, Denktash and his allies in Ankara were
late to go on the counteroffensive as Ankara had not made up its mind on how to
proceed when the Annan plan was unveiled. It was not until after the Copenhagen
summit and the pressure was off that Denktash really felt strong enough to go
on the attack and consolidate Turkish public opinion.
Furthermore, we must recall that the protests seemed at first to have been given
the blessing of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, so to what degree
the masses reflect conviction is not at all clear. Erdoğan, perhaps too
confident that he could make headway with the EU in exchange for a Cyprus
settlement, initially took Denktash head on, calling him to task and made
statements that were unambiguously in favour of a settlement. Moreover, his
statements were largely supportive of the demonstrators. Denktash has since
rallied his allies in Ankara to retaliate against Erdoğan. More recently,
Erdoğan has toned down his criticisms of the Turkish Cypriot leader, and his
public pronouncements on Cyprus are much more in line with officialdom. Of
course, Erdoğan’s support for a solution should not be confused with support
for the Annan plan per se.
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North Cyprus
