Parliamentary elections in the internationally unrecognized ‘Turkish Republic of
Northern Cyprus’ (TRNC) promise to be a referendum on the future of the ‘Cyprus
problem.’ In the event of an opposition victory, the Turkish Cypriot leader,
Rauf Denktash, could be replaced as the chief negotiator for the Turkish side
by someone who would negotiate a settlement on the basis of the Annan plan.
These elections can therefore be considered crucial for the future of Cyprus as
a whole.
How likely is an opposition victory? Some political scientists in the West
claim to have perfected models of voting and try to predict the outcome of the
horse race. This analysis, however, is not based on any inside information. The
polls that exist are contradictory and therefore reliability is suspect. Of
course, elections in the north are not simply a matter of getting the polls
right. Turkey’s disposition will, as always, loom large in the ultimate
outcome.
The elections in December 2003 promise to be a referendum on the future
direction of the Cyprus problem in general and the Annan plan in particular.
This paper attempted to weigh the probability that supporters of the Annan plan
would actually win the election. If they do, and are able to replace Rauf
Denktash as the chief negotiator for the Turkish side, what impact would that
have on the fate of the UN plan?
Whereas a victory for the Left would be unprecedented, it would only be possible
if the settler swing vote realigned. This implies a CTP-led government that
would negotiate the Annan plan with a view to securing the rights of settlers,
for instance, in return for support from Ankara. On the other hand, this would
also be a mandate for the Annan plan to be negotiated, an outcome that Denktash
could not accept.
Since Turkey’s own fortunes are conjoined with that of Cyprus, given the
growing political linkage between Turkish accession and the settlement of the
Cyprus problem, any discussion of the future of the Turkish Cypriots cannot be
abstracted from developments in the EU-Turkey relationship. The degree to which
the international community remains steadfastly committed to the Annan plan
will be very important in determining the direction of Ankara’s foreign policy,
and may prove to be an important factor in the Turkish Cypriot elections. |
North Cyprus
