A number of opposition parties and groups, as well as some closer to the establishment, have seen the prospects of capitalizing on shifting loyalties. There are serious doubts as to whether the protests really meant support for parties like CTP. Therefore, most opposition groups have advocated a grand coalition of Annan plan supporters.

The Left

CTP’s strategy, under the leadership of Mehmet Ali Talat, has been to broaden its appeal at the national level even at the risk of alienating some of its more ideological voters and party cadres. As a result, it has resisted calls for a unified front, aiming to avoid the stigma of association with more fringe groups of the Left who tend to advocate anti-establishment sentiments. CTP wants to appeal to Turkish settlers who represent a large constituency. The Settler’s Association leadership, under one Nuri Çevikel, for instance, have come out in favour of a settlement like Annan that would grant settlers basic rights as citizens of a unified Cyprus. Although historically there has been great mistrust of the CTP among settlers, who believe the CTP wishes them repatriated to Turkey, CTP seems to think it can make inroads here.

This seems at odds with its other activities, such as legally contesting the ability of the Council of Ministers to grant citizenship. CTP is also sponsoring a bill in parliament to strip the Council of Ministers of this authority. It also decided at its recent convention to open the way for non-party members to be nominated as candidates in an effort to broaden appeal and had been courting the likes of Ali Erel of the Turkish Cypriot Board of Commerce, hoping to tap into the center-right vote. Erel rebuffed CTP, favouring establishing his own liberal democratic movement, but it is unclear whether he has the sort of public support to secure at least 5% of the vote. Media personality Doğan Harman seems more keen, however. CTP’s popularity is probably on the wane since its highpoint following the municipal elections, and its strategy will not pay the kind of dividends it hopes. CTP strategists seem to be putting an extraordinary amount of stock in the likelihood that the current government in Turkey will endorse the CTP over the UBP, the erstwhile perennial favourite. CTP has been the focus of attacks in the media, especially in Afrika newspaper, but has been going to some lengths to claim that it has no fundamental differences with Akıncı’s movement. On the other hand, it is far too early in the game to conclude that the CTP’s strategy will fail as it moves toward the Right.

Mustafa Akıncı looked to be a spent force following the ousting of the TKP from government, but he has since emerged as the voice of the masses. He currently represents the recently forged Baris ve Demokrasi Harekati (Peace and Democracy Movement) which includes TKP and a number of other parties of the left not represented in government, as well as several other personalities known to the public. Most recently the movement declared its intention to contest the elections as a political party. The movement is increasingly outspoken and challenges the notion that there exists a real democracy in the north. It champions the Annan plan and likens the elections to a referendum that was denied the people. Akıncı is well respected and even charismatic, or at least he is definitely much more so than Angolemli who replaced him as TKP leader. The recent municipal election results suggest that the TKP is wise not to go alone, but it is not clear how the movement will co-operate when electoral lists are compiled. Moreover, they may find themselves relegated to the fringe, as is the intent of CTP which aims for the lion’s share of the centre ground.

Furthest to the Left is the Yurtsever Birlik Partisi or Patriot Union Party (YBH) of Alpay Durduran. The YBH is the only bona fide pan-Cypriot party, advocating justice for all, including Greek Cypriots. YBH differentiates itself, therefore, from the BDH of Akıncı, portraying Akıncı as a populist and segregationist. Clearly, the YBH wants to consolidate the ideological voters and has recently filed a suit with the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) challenging the entire electoral process in the north claiming that the demographic changes are in fundamental violation of various international conventions.

Finally, Ali Erel of the Turkish Cypriot Board of Commerce has established the Çözüm ve AB Partisi or Solution and EU Party. Although the CTP has tried to reach out to Erel to enhance its electoral chances, Erel seems at odds with the CTP and hopes that despite going his own way he will overcome the threshold. It is debatable whether Erel and others like him should be classified as ‘Left,’ since ideologically Erel would claim the mantle of ‘liberal’, a category more indicative of the ‘Right’ in most political systems. Here, however, as a leading proponent of the adoption of the Annan plan, and therefore an opponent of the ‘status quo’, political pedigree is less important. Erel represents Turkish Cypriot manufacturers and other business interests that hope to take advantage of trade – as opposed to interests that benefit from a closed economy - and therefore the economies of scale offered by EU accession. Erel would also like to portray himself as actively working to lift the ‘embargo’ imposed on Turkish Cypriots. His vehicle, the Board of Commerce, is recognized internationally and is well placed to negotiate terms of trade with the Greek Cypriots and the EU.

The Right

The UBP faces some hurdles, but will champion the ‘status quo’ forces. It should be noted that the term ‘status quo’ is widely used by opponents. The UBP argues that it is actually acting as a vanguard of the national cause, resisting pressure to agree to a settlement that denies Turkish Cypriots their self-determination in the form of sovereignty. The UBP will defend the ‘state’ against all encroachments, such as the implementation of the Annan plan. As a hardliner, Prime Minister Eroğlu loses some credibility, however, now having to acknowledge that some territorial adjustments would be needed in the advent of a settlement. Eroğlu, who is known for his pronouncements that ‘no solution is the solution,’ has also adjusted his rhetoric over the past couple years to allow for a negotiated settlement. Nevertheless, the UBP has traditionally been a party of patronage and still controls resources. The UBP may not be as popular as in the past, and Eroğlu may have suffered from years of being at odds with Denktash, but his lack of charisma has never been a political libality. Although Eroğlu has proven over successive presidential elections that he is Denktash’s greatest political rival, his inability to speak any foreign languages is a handicap, and he is not seen as a potential negotiator on behalf of the Turkish side.

The UBP has strong grassroots organisation and represents business and rural interests most opposed to the Annan plan. Many of these interests find the property regime envisioned in Annan to be especially unfavourable. Despite all the talk about the CTP’s recent success, as the recent municipal election results demonstrate, UBP proved to be the most powerful party outside of the larger towns. That is, despite CTP’s success in winning the mayoral races in Nicosia (Lefkosha), Kyrenia (Girne) and Famagusta (Gazi Mağusa), the overall tally of votes favoured the UBP. The other big towns, including Morphou (Güzelyurt) went to the UBP. To some extent, the UBP’s fortunes will be based on Ankara’s support. Elections in north Cyprus often turn on micro level inducements. As the UBP is the dominant partner in government, the party is well placed to offer jobs and other privileges. Of course, it is also true that the UBP has a core constituency and that ideological factors resonate along with inducements. Many UBP supporters are essentially ideologically opposed to a ‘reunified’ Cyprus if that entails a multicultural society with Greek Cypriots repopulating the north. In fact, there is virtually no difference on this with Denktash. On the other hand, there may be some nuanced differences with Serdar Denktash of the rival DP, who is less overtly in favour of the continuation of the ‘status quo.’ Eroğlu, along with his opponents at the other end of the ideological spectrum, acknowledges that the upcoming elections will be unique.

The DP appeals to essentially the same constituency as the UBP but has had some problems with a more liberal wing of cadres supporting a solution to the Cyprus problem. Salih Cosar’s wing has lost out to Serdar Denktash, but Denktash himself has been somewhat ambiguous about the Annan plan. Given the relative unpopularity of the UBP, though, the DP may well hope to make some inroads and take former UBP votes. Serdar Denktash tends to sound more ambiguous than Eroğlu on his stance on the Annan plan, although he is ultimately against it. He hopes to capitalise on the opening of the gates at the Ledra Palace and elsewhere and was clearly the most enthusiastic member of the government. (He even got a write up in Time International for his role.) The DP will also try to distance itself from the alleged corruption of the UBP and its system of patronage. In this way the DP will have placed itself strategically at odds with the ‘status quo.’ The question is whether this is a credible electoral platform with the voters.

Smaller parties of the Right, as with the Left, might find it difficult to place MPs in parliament. Ertruğrul Hasipoğlu and his brother broke away from the UBP having failed to dethrone Eroğlu at the latest party convention. Their Yenilikci Atilim Partisi (YAP) has forged a coalition with some right wing parties not represented in parliament. The strategy is ambiguous: in favour of a solution, but not the Annan plan and opposed to the ‘status quo’ domestically. Furthest to the Right is the Milliyetçi Adalet Partisi (MAP), which is a sister party to the far right MHP of Turkey. It has a core constituency and is most militantly opposed to the Annan plan, but the frequent party leadership turnover could prove an electoral liability. Other parties of the Right might try to consolidate the settler vote, but as of this writing it is not clear how this will turn out. There have been efforts to forge a coalition of forces among the smaller parties of the Right.